Last February I was fortunate enough to attend the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (mostly due to the excellent work of the ever-amazing Ryan Stimson). One of the marquee events was a panel titled “Moneymind: Overcoming Cognitive Bias“, which featured 4…
Yearly Archives: 2017
The Time Value of Money and Player Valuation
One of the weird but infrequently mentioned quirks of salary negotiations in the NHL is the competing interests of players and owners with regards to how the actual salary payments should be structured. While analysts tend to focus on the…
Game Theory and Defending Against a 2-on-1
Last night, Jake Gardiner made a bad decision. Faced with a 2-on-1 in a tie game midway through the 2nd period, Gardiner made what seemed like the smart choice – he played the pass, leaving Curtis McElhinney to deal with…
Quick Thoughts: 4-Forward Power Plays and Protecting A Lead
The other day I tweeted out a bunch of stuff about why teams may want to avoid a 4-forward power play when they’re up late. I’m not going to bother turning this into a full post, but I’ve linked the…
About that Flyers challenge last night…
This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Last night Dave Hakstol and the Flyers were the first team to get burned by the NHL’s new offside challenge rule. With a one-goal lead over Nashville and just 2:41 left in the…
How certain do you need to be on an offside challenge?
Offside challenges are, to say the least, a controversial topic. While many have advocated for the benefit of getting the call right even at the cost of a delay in the game, it’s almost indisputable that the introduction of the…
Should teams play with 4 forwards when they’re down late?
This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Tl;dr There is some evidence to suggest that teams should play with 4 forwards when trailing late in a game. The timing of when to switch to 4 forwards is dependent on how…
A Defense of WAR from a WAR-Skeptic
This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Note: This was originally intended to be a tweet-thread which grew far too long and unmanageable, so you’re getting a poorly-written post instead. Apologies in advance. Recently, David Johnson, owner of the awesome…
Second Units and Zone Entries: Why teams should go all-in on the 4 forward power play
Using 4 forwards on the power play is generally a good strategy. Four forward units take more shots, score more often on those shots, and post a better goal differential than 3 forward groups do. It’s also a strategy that…
Measuring the Importance of Structure on the Power Play
This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. tl;dr We can measure a team’s power play structure using shot location data, creating a Power Play Structure Index that quantifies their ability to establish and shoot from a structured formation. A Team’s…
puck++ 