Monthly Archives: May 2013

Adjusting GAA for Shots Against

Over my last few posts I’ve been looking into the idea of game level goaltending performances and adjusting goalie evaluation metrics to account for the number of shots against a goalie faces. One of the issues I have with Save

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Posted in Goaltending

Round 2 Prediction Updates

Updated playoff odds based on our game prediction model are given in the table below. For those of you unfamiliar with the model, it uses each team’s Fenwick Close, Regressed Shooting Percentage and Regressed Save Percentage to predict single game

Posted in Predictions

Who To Cheer For in Game 7 and Initial Round 2 Odds

With all but one of the second round matchups fixed, here’s who fans of the teams playing Game 7s tonight should be cheering for, based on our playoff predictor model: Fans of Should Cheer For Odds to win 2nd round

Posted in Predictions

Save % and Shots Against

I wanted to follow up on my post last week about standard save % and the idea that it could lead to overvaluing goalies who see more shots on average. The chart below shows the total save % for all

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Posted in Goaltending

Save % Variance and Updated Predictions

Goaltender Game by Game Save % One of the things I’ve been interested in looking at is the idea of game-by-game goaltender save percentage. One of the problems, in my view, with save percentage as a metric is that it

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Posted in Goaltending, Predictions

(Belated) Playoff Predictions

So now that the playoffs are already one game in, it would seem like a good time to post predictions right? Luckily, none of my predictions look too far off so far, although there’s still lots of time for things

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Posted in Uncategorized