Blog Archives

Should teams play with 4 forwards when they’re down late?

This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Tl;dr There is some evidence to suggest that teams should play with 4 forwards when trailing late in a game. The timing of when to switch to 4 forwards is dependent on how

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Posted in Theoretical

Does aggressive play on the penalty kill pay off?

This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Late last week, Arik Parnass pointed out a particular peculiarity about the Ottawa Senators’ penalty killing so far this year. For those that missed segment today on 690, #Sens PK is super interesting.

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Posted in Special Teams, Theoretical

A New Way To Measure Deployment – Expected Faceoff Goal Differential

This article originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Zone starts are not that great of a metric. Although certain players do tend to be put out almost exclusively for offensive or defensive purposes, the reality is that for most players’ zone starts have

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Posted in Deployment, Theoretical

Predicting Save Percentage: Dangers Zones and Shot Volumes

A few days ago, Conor Tompkins of Null Hypothesis Hockey tweeted out an interesting set of graphs showing the correlation between a goalie’s save percentage in each of the War-On-Ice danger zones and their overall success rate. Conor found that

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Posted in Goaltending, Theoretical

Improving Corsi Rel: Adjusting for Team Talent

Corsi Rel is a stat that, in theory at least, is meant to address the fact that a good player on a poor team is still likely to post a bad CF%. We don’t want to punish superstars who are

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Posted in Theoretical

Are the Buffalo Sabres worse than an AHL team?

The Buffalo Sabres are not a good hockey team. This is not news to anyone. At 6-13-2 the Sabres sit last in the Atlantic Division by 6 points, and are tied with the Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers for least

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Posted in Theoretical

When should teams attempt to block shots? Looking at the break-even success rate for shot-blocking

The 2013-2014 season was a painful one for Ottawa Senators fans. After reaching the playoffs in both of the previous two seasons, many analysts predicted that the Sens were on the verge of breaking through into the league’s elite. Instead,

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Posted in Theoretical