Blog Archives

Shift Ends and Shot Rates

Yesterday, Tyler Dellow had an interesting post over at The Athletic (paywall) examining why not all ice-time against opponents is created equally. By drilling down on how the Leafs’ defensive units fared against various levels of competition last year, Tyler was

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Posted in Zone Starts

Optimal Contract Structuring: “Taking It To The Logical Conclusion”

Last February I was fortunate enough to attend the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (mostly due to the excellent work of the ever-amazing Ryan Stimson). One of the marquee events was a panel titled “Moneymind: Overcoming Cognitive Bias“, which featured 4

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Posted in Salary Cap

The Time Value of Money and Player Valuation

One of the weird but infrequently mentioned quirks of salary negotiations in the NHL is the competing interests of players and owners with regards to how the actual salary payments should be structured. While analysts tend to focus on the

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Posted in Salary Cap

Game Theory and Defending Against a 2-on-1

Last night, Jake Gardiner made a bad decision. Faced with a 2-on-1 in a tie game midway through the 2nd period, Gardiner made what seemed like the smart choice – he played the pass, leaving Curtis McElhinney to deal with

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Posted in Game Theory

Quick Thoughts: 4-Forward Power Plays and Protecting A Lead

The other day I tweeted out a bunch of stuff about why teams may want to avoid a 4-forward power play when they’re up late. I’m not going to bother turning this into a full post, but I’ve linked the

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Posted in Powerplay

How certain do you need to be on an offside challenge?

Offside challenges are, to say the least, a controversial topic. While many have advocated for the benefit of getting the call right even at the cost of a delay in the game, it’s almost indisputable that the introduction of the

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Posted in Theoretical

Should teams play with 4 forwards when they’re down late?

This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Tl;dr There is some evidence to suggest that teams should play with 4 forwards when trailing late in a game. The timing of when to switch to 4 forwards is dependent on how

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Posted in Theoretical