This post originally appeared on Hockey Graphs. Pekka Rinne is good at controlling his rebounds. I know this, because people on the internet have made their opinions abundantly clear. Scouts and fanalysts alike credit Rinne’s quick glove hand with helping…
Blog Archives
Predicting Save Percentage: Dangers Zones and Shot Volumes
A few days ago, Conor Tompkins of Null Hypothesis Hockey tweeted out an interesting set of graphs showing the correlation between a goalie’s save percentage in each of the War-On-Ice danger zones and their overall success rate. Conor found that…
Is Jonathan Quick Overrated? Shot counting bias and save percentages
Travis Yost, TSNs newest hockey analytics writer, recently posted a piece outlining his most overrated and underrated players from a fancy stats point of view (related note, Travis’ piece on Nathan Mackinnon is a must read, provided they actually fix…
What’s a goalie worth these days? Determining replacement level goaltending
The concept of a replacement level player is one of the most important ideas in sports analytics, but one that unfortunately is used relatively infrequently in hockey. Replacement level is meant to represent the level of talent that’s widely available…
Adjusting Save Percentage for Team Effects
As anyone who’s looked at evaluating goalies before knows it’s not a pleasant task. Even ignoring the inherent extreme variability in game to game or year to year statistics, a goaltender’s numbers can be heavily influenced by the 5 skaters in…
Examining Rebound Control
Earlier this week, Rob Pettapiece had an interesting article over at NHL Numbers on rebound control, where he looked at the percentage of shots a goaltender faced that resulted in a rebound (which he defined as a shot within the…
GAA- Continued
I’ve added full lists of season-by-season and all-time (since 2007) GAA- leaders here and here respectively. The season-by-season list contains all goalies who played a minimum of 33% of the games during a given season, while the all-time list contains…
Adjusting GAA for Shots Against
Over my last few posts I’ve been looking into the idea of game level goaltending performances and adjusting goalie evaluation metrics to account for the number of shots against a goalie faces. One of the issues I have with Save…
Save % and Shots Against
I wanted to follow up on my post last week about standard save % and the idea that it could lead to overvaluing goalies who see more shots on average. The chart below shows the total save % for all…
Save % Variance and Updated Predictions
Goaltender Game by Game Save % One of the things I’ve been interested in looking at is the idea of game-by-game goaltender save percentage. One of the problems, in my view, with save percentage as a metric is that it…
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