Yearly Archives: 2015

Puck++ Playoff Prediction Challenge

Do you like the playoffs? Do you like predicting things? And do you think the NHL’s claim that SAP has a guy who can get 85% of playoff series right is a bit unbelievable? Then do we here at Puck++ have

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Posted in Playoffs

Predicting Save Percentage: Dangers Zones and Shot Volumes

A few days ago, Conor Tompkins of Null Hypothesis Hockey tweeted out an interesting set of graphs showing the correlation between a goalie’s save percentage in each of the War-On-Ice danger zones and their overall success rate. Conor found that

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Posted in Goaltending, Theoretical

Calculating Replacement Level for Faceoff Win Percentage

The idea of the replacement level player is one of the most important concepts in sports analytics. While not strictly necessary to do any basic player comparisons, the value of the replacement level lies in providing a baseline below which

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Posted in Faceoffs

Hockey Prospectus – Player Level Weighted Shots

Over at Hockey Prospectus I’ve got an article up on calculating Weighted Shots (or, more specifically, Score Adjusted Weighted Shots) at the individual player level. Give it a read, here. The article expands on my presentation at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference, which

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Posted in Hockey Prospectus

Improving Corsi Rel: Adjusting for Team Talent

Corsi Rel is a stat that, in theory at least, is meant to address the fact that a good player on a poor team is still likely to post a bad CF%. We don’t want to punish superstars who are

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Posted in Theoretical

How much do zone starts matter part II: A lot on their own, not that much in aggregate

In Part I of our review of zone starts, we looked at the how the traditional definition of zone starts varied from what most people would consider a “true” zone start, and found that when we applied the true zone

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Posted in Zone Starts

How much do zone starts matter part I: (Maybe) not as much as we thought

In 2013-2014 Boyd Gordon and Manny Malholtra were two of the worst players in raw CF% across the league at 42.3% and 41.6% respectively. Most people would argue that their results were not all that surprising given that they faced

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Posted in Zone Starts

Hockey Prospectus: Whose special teams are really special this year?

Today on Hockey Prospectus I’ve got an article up looking at how each team’s special teams units have performed against expectations this year. Take a look at it here.

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Posted in Hockey Prospectus

Hockey Prospectus: Randy Carlyle’s Effect on Puck Possession and Scoring Chances

I’ve got an article up over at Hockey Prospectus on Randy Carlyle and his effect on puck possession and scoring chances. Hint: it wasn’t pretty. If you’re interested, you can read it here.

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Posted in Hockey Prospectus