The true ability of the Toronto Maple Leafs seems to be the subject of never-ending debate in the hockey world. On the one hand, you’ve got the fancy stats crowd who insists that the incredibly high shooting percentages the Leafs…
Blog Archives
Lucky or good: 2012-2013 Historical Comparables
The New Jersey Devils were the poster child for bad luck last year. In spite of putting up a 55.6 CF% in close situations, the Devils couldn’t seem to get the puck into their opponents net or to keep it…
Do defensemen play worse on their off-hand?
Steve Yzerman apparently has a problem. A right-handed defenseman problem. The former Red Wing and current Team Canada general manager has too many talented right-handed defensemen at his disposal and is now stuck deciding between sending out a balanced lineup…
Posted in Uncategorized
Examining Rebound Control
Earlier this week, Rob Pettapiece had an interesting article over at NHL Numbers on rebound control, where he looked at the percentage of shots a goaltender faced that resulted in a rebound (which he defined as a shot within the…
Shots Against and Even Strength Shooting Percentage
I had a discussion on twitter the other day about the relationship between shots against and save percentage. I wrote earlier about how on an individual game basis, save percentage tends to increase as the number of shots against increases.…
Posted in Goaltending
GAA- Continued
I’ve added full lists of season-by-season and all-time (since 2007) GAA- leaders here and here respectively. The season-by-season list contains all goalies who played a minimum of 33% of the games during a given season, while the all-time list contains…
Adjusting GAA for Shots Against
Over my last few posts I’ve been looking into the idea of game level goaltending performances and adjusting goalie evaluation metrics to account for the number of shots against a goalie faces. One of the issues I have with Save…
Round 2 Prediction Updates
Updated playoff odds based on our game prediction model are given in the table below. For those of you unfamiliar with the model, it uses each team’s Fenwick Close, Regressed Shooting Percentage and Regressed Save Percentage to predict single game…
Posted in Predictions
Who To Cheer For in Game 7 and Initial Round 2 Odds
With all but one of the second round matchups fixed, here’s who fans of the teams playing Game 7s tonight should be cheering for, based on our playoff predictor model: Fans of Should Cheer For Odds to win 2nd round…
Posted in Predictions
Save % and Shots Against
I wanted to follow up on my post last week about standard save % and the idea that it could lead to overvaluing goalies who see more shots on average. The chart below shows the total save % for all…
puck++ 