We’re now three days into free agency and with most of the marquee names on the market already signed on for the coming year and beyond, teams and fans alike are starting to look over their rosters trying to figure…
Blog Archives
Why is it so hard for good teams to get better? Looking at the value of a marginal goal
Posted in Theoretical
2014 Free Agent Preview: Forwards
It’s almost free-agent season, the time of year when most fans are salivating over all the possible superstars their team might add, while the analytics fans of the world are mostly hoping their GM’s don’t screw up too badly. In…
Context Neutral Player Evaluation: Examining Defence and Calculating xGD20
A few months ago I wrote about xGF20, my attempt to isolate a player’s offensive ability from his teammates abilities and the luck involved in shooting percentages in small samples. At its core, xGF20 is based on 3 reasonably repeatable…
Adjusting Save Percentage for Team Effects
As anyone who’s looked at evaluating goalies before knows it’s not a pleasant task. Even ignoring the inherent extreme variability in game to game or year to year statistics, a goaltender’s numbers can be heavily influenced by the 5 skaters in…
Round 2 Preview and Round 1 Review
The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs begin tonight (in 37 minutes at the moment I started writing this, to be precise), and after an exciting first round it’s nice not to have to wait even one night to…
2014 Playoff Predictions
Tomorrow night marks the start of the NHL playoffs and so to continue an annual tradition (once is a tradition, right?) I’ve put together the World Famous PuckPlusPlus Playoff Prediction Preview (hurray, alliteration). In the lockout shortened season, our model…
Introducing xGF20: A Context Neutral, Corsi-Based Goal Creation Metric
If you follow the hockey analytics world at all (and since you’re reading this, I’m assuming you do), you likely have a pretty good understanding of, and appreciation for, Corsi. Analysts like to use Corsi because it’s a better predictor…
Breaking Down Corsi: Looking Into Shot Blocks and Misses
The willingness to block shots is one that’s often touted by the media as being the difference between winning and losing. Players who put their bodies on the line are held in the highest regard and with good reason: Fenwick,…
What’s the cost of icing the puck?
Following the 2004-2005 lockout, the NHL introduced a variety of rule changes intended to increase scoring and bring fans back to the rink. One of these changes which prevented a team that ices the puck from changing their defenders, was…
The Benefits of the 4-Forward Powerplay
On Friday night I wondered aloud why coaches don’t play a 3F/1D setup during overtime, given the unpredictable nature of the shootout and the single point they’d already guaranteed themselves. And so naturally, as I often do, I started to…
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