Yearly Archives: 2014

2014-2015 Season Predictions

Hockey is almost back! Hurray! With the pointlessness of the preseason finally behind us, and with the start of the real games less than 24 hours away, I thought I’d throw my hat into the ring and offer my best

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Posted in Predictions

Is Jonathan Quick Overrated? Shot counting bias and save percentages

Travis Yost, TSNs newest hockey analytics writer, recently posted a piece outlining his most overrated and underrated players from a fancy stats point of view (related note, Travis’ piece on Nathan Mackinnon is a must read, provided they actually fix

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Posted in Goaltending

Player Comparison Tool/Salary Generator

Every NHL contract negotiation will always feature at least 2 common events: 1) reporters listing off subjectively-determined comparable players to peg a player to a given salary (“He’s going to be looking for Andrew MacDonald money”); and 2) fans picking-and-choosing

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Posted in Free Agency, Predictions

When should teams attempt to block shots? Looking at the break-even success rate for shot-blocking

The 2013-2014 season was a painful one for Ottawa Senators fans. After reaching the playoffs in both of the previous two seasons, many analysts predicted that the Sens were on the verge of breaking through into the league’s elite. Instead,

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Posted in Theoretical

What’s a goalie worth these days? Determining replacement level goaltending

The concept of a replacement level player is one of the most important ideas in sports analytics, but one that unfortunately is used relatively infrequently in hockey. Replacement level is meant to represent the level of talent that’s widely available

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Posted in Goaltending

Why is it so hard for good teams to get better? Looking at the value of a marginal goal

We’re now three days into free agency and with most of the marquee names on the market already signed on for the coming year and beyond, teams and fans alike are starting to look over their rosters trying to figure

Posted in Theoretical

2014 Free Agent Preview: Forwards

It’s almost free-agent season, the time of year when most fans are salivating over all the possible superstars their team might add, while the analytics fans of the world are mostly hoping their GM’s don’t screw up too badly. In

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Posted in Free Agency

Context Neutral Player Evaluation: Examining Defence and Calculating xGD20

A few months ago I wrote about xGF20, my attempt to isolate a player’s offensive ability from his teammates abilities and the luck involved in shooting percentages in small samples. At its core, xGF20 is based on 3 reasonably repeatable

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Posted in Statistics

Adjusting Save Percentage for Team Effects

As anyone who’s looked at evaluating goalies before knows it’s not a pleasant task. Even ignoring the inherent extreme variability in game to game or year to year statistics, a goaltender’s numbers can be heavily influenced by the 5 skaters in

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Posted in Goaltending, Statistics

Round 2 Preview and Round 1 Review

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs begin tonight (in 37 minutes at the moment I started writing this, to be precise), and after an exciting first round it’s nice not to have to wait even one night to

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Posted in Predictions